US seeks Russian blind eye on Iraq war with "permission to bomb Georgia"

January 24, 2003

US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, who is in Moscow, made a sensational statement yesterday. In an interview on Ekho Moskvy radio  he made it clear that the United States would not criticize Russia if it carried out pre-emptive strikes against Chechen gunmen on Georgian territory. However, Moscow wanted this statement from Washington four months ago. Today it is the United States itself that needs it most...

The US Embassy in Moscow, where Kommersant's correspondent sought clarification, stated officially that it "cannot comment on the remarks by the deputy secretary of state"... In fact, as Kommersant has  learned, the words of the high-ranking State Department representative caused real shock at the US embassy.

There was a similar reaction in Tbilisi. However, there they  immediately attributed the whole thing to the Russian media: They must have misunderstood the deputy secretary of state.

It may well be, however, that Richard Armitage's sensational statement was not a diplomatic blunder but was done deliberately. Russia was waiting for this kind of remark from its American partners in the antiterrorist coalition four months ago. In September Moscow basically announced the possibility of starting military operations against Georgia: President Putin gave Tbilisi an ultimatum, demanding the immediate extradition of the gunmen on its territory and threatening otherwise to carry out strikes against the terrorists' bases.

At that time Russia, in effect, offered the United States a deal: Iraq in exchange for Georgia. The Kremlin more or less told the White House: We will not stop you dealing with Iraq but you will have to agree to our plans regarding Georgia. Especially given that they are consistent with your approach to Iraq, and there are people lying low in Georgia who are involved in terrorist acts not only against us but against you too. At that time, however, the United States supported Tbilisi, stating that the imposition of order in the Pankisi Gorge was a matter for the Georgian government. Moscow did not get the long-awaited statement  until four months later.

However, today Russia's relations with Georgia have stabilized and no serious Russian politician is now talking about pre-emptive strikes onPankisi. And Georgia is divulging intelligence information on the situation in the gorge and on links between the gunmen hiding out there and Al-Qa'idah. Moreover, just a couple of hours before Mr Armitage's statement, the Kremlin officially announced that Vladimir Putin is to meet Eduard Shevardnadze on 28 January during the CIS summit in Kiev. And some time after that the Russian Federation president summoned the leaders of Gazprom and UES [Unified Energy System of Russia], Aleksey Miller and Anatoliy Chubays, and tasked them with resuming the supply  of Russian gas to Georgia - which was broken off because of an accident on the gas pipeline - within 24 hours.

So in principle Russia does not really need America's carte blanche today: It will not be bombing Georgia. And the United States knew this when it granted it. It is the United States itself that needs Mr Armitage's statement. By giving Russia carte blanche on Georgia (even  if it does not need it), Washington is counting on a similar gesture from Moscow - this time in relation to Iraq. After all, Moscow itself  offered the United States a deal: Iraq in exchange for Georgia. And that deal would come in very useful for George Bush right now.

Source: Kommersant, Moscow, in Russian 24 Jan 03

/© BBC Monitoring

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