Chechnya: A No-Win Election: Who Will Oppose Kadyrov? And How To Get the 86,000 Military Votes in the Area of the 'Anti-Terrorist Operation'?

Commentary by Anna Politkovskaya

Moscow Novaya Gazeta in Russian No 63, 28 Aug 03

Chechnya -- Sinister games are brewing in Chechnya. The presidential election has been called for 5 October but instead of this, it smells of war. A new Chechen war. Armed detachments of all colors are darting about as they wish. Weaponry is everywhere and every square meter returns fire. The Wahhabites are once again in control of Argun, their outpost, and are by no means not at home in Groznyy. The defensive installations do not want to know anything apart from the new business -- they are trading sheets of signatures at agreed prices. Akhmat-Khadji Kadyrov, the Kremlin favorite under hom Putin's Staff launched the election, has been warned in Moscow that the federal center can no longer guarantee his safety. That is very significant -- the Kremlin seems to have gotten ready to surrender its loyal comrade in the continuation of the second Chechen war, that is to say to strip Kadyrov of the "administrative resource," without which he is nothing. Naturally, Kadyrov's men -- his armed brigades that thus far Moscow has only helped form up, arm, and engage in lawlessness -- are restive. Sensing betrayal, they are promising to withdraw into the forests "if it is not Kadyrov."... Again? War? After four whole years of the "anti-terrorist operation," three of which went on cultivating its own monster in its pocket? Chechnya has been flooded with weaponry. In the fifth year of the so-called "anti-terrorist operation" it is both the arsenal and the firing range at the same time. Men sit down to dinner clutching mortars in one hand and forking up pasta with the other. When you go to the republic's election commission, armed citizens of unknown military provenance stand on the road to the bosom of the consolidation of democracy. When you go outside in the morning, the evening's "firearms" corpses are lying there. The pre-election period has only added one thing to these pictures: Armed detachments and their services have wound up even more highly prized on the Chechen market than before.

How much does a military-electoral support detachment cost now? Where can one be found? And, in fact, for what purpose?...

In the previous issue of our newspaper (No. 62 of 25 August) we began a conversation on this subject with a story about how Akhmat-Khadji Kadyrov, "acting president of the Chechen Republic" and one of the main contenders for the job of president within the framework of the 23 March Constitution, has formed his many-thousand-strong armed brigades to meet the election. Today, a sequel about both him and his rivals.

Tribuna

A blue-gray jeep squeals into Tribuna, a tiny micro-rayon on the outskirts of Groznyy; Groznyy only has a handful of such jeeps. If it is driving at such speed, everyone knows without authentication that it is either bandits tearing along or the federals. Fully armored people jump out of the jeep -- they have so much weaponry on them that it is not clear where their bodies are. Are they bandits?... The one who was driving is the last to jump out. There is a Hero of Russia star on his military uniform, which means he is a federal. The man shouts something, goes somewhere, and whirls round without slowing down his run around the guard and the jeep for a second.... And stays put. He is a very strange man.... He has no left arm and the stump, which has no a false limb, dangles in time with his bustling movements like a rag tossed in the wind.

He is Said-Magomed Kokiyev, a key figure in many Chechen presidential candidates' search for a force capable of opposing Kadyrov's army, which has grown to several thousand and is instilling fear and horror in the republic. Many people would like to gain Kokiyev as an ally and Kadyrov, among others, has sent out chasers. Kokiyev is a Chechen and
a major of the GRU (General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate) and under the control of this "firm" he has also come from Karabakh, where he began fighting, something he has been utterly unable to stop. Kokiyev now has a detachment of 386 men under his command. It is a big force -- they are all GRU men, Chechen warriors with special reconnaissance-subversive training behind them: Organizing or preventing a terrorist act is nothing to them. Tribuna is their base,
barracks, and headquarters.

In addition to this, Major Kokiyev was recently given an important position -- he is now deputy military commandant of the republic, controlling half of Chechnya. Nominally, it is "Western Chechnya" (Groznyy, Groznenskiy rural rayon, Urus-Martan, Achkhoy-Martan, and so on). That means Kokiyev's soldiers, who are capable of performing the most cunning reconnaissance tasks, will control the ballot boxes of half of Chechnya in the election. They will add, remove, count up "correctly," and neutralize anyone who proves to be against them.... Or just the same, will not add, not remove, and count up "wrongly."...

Kokiyev is also a bridge to the 86,000 military votes. Whoever Kokiyev chooses undoubtedly has a big chance of getting part of this golden fund. Local realities are such that in complete accordance with current Russian legislation, 86,000 soldiers (a Russian Federation General Staff figure) will post their ballot papers for the president of Chechnya in the 5 October election -- that is almost one-third of the votes necessary to get through....

Then the thunder rang out: Kokiyev announced that he is not with Kadyrov and "his" candidate is Moscow entrepreneur Khuseyn Dzhabrailov. Why?

"I am not against Kadyrov," the tense major explains. "I cannot be against someone appointed by the president. I simply have not taken this road since 1991 in order that it be possible to steal and kill. People are disappearing and being robbed. How can I turn a blind eye to that? He has.... I would be pleased to support Kadyrov but we cannot be monsters. That is what we have been fighting against for thirteen years. We have already had clashes with Kadyrov's men. I have lost so many people that I do not have the right to stand aside."

"Why Dzhabrailov exactly?"

"Since 1991, Khuseyn has been the only one to give material assistance to us, the opposition to Dudayev. Back then he gave us flour, which we sold in Narzan and bought two Kamaz trucks of weapons. I will always remember that."

"But you are an army man. They will give the command and you will vote as they say...."

"No. There will not be any command. I know. That is the absolute truth. Things have always been bad with orders common to all security agencies in Chechnya, now and for a long time: The federals will stratify like a Napoleon cake in line with their departments' military and political interests."

The FSB [Federal Security Service] and GRU. Who Will Outdo Whom?

If the republic has a "Western Chechnya," it must have an "Eastern" one too. Sulim Yamadayev is the second deputy military commandant. He has been given control of "Eastern Chechnya" (the mountainous regions, Gudermes, Kurchaloy, Shali, and so on). This was to counterbalance Kokiyev, of course. The fact is that Sulim Yamadayev -- and he is one of Gudermes's Yamadayev brigand brothers -- is a Kadyrov man. In the sense that he is in alliance with Kadyrov. Kadyrov's men are FSB people. In the sense that they act under the patronage and sponsorship of the FSB, something that is in fact no secret to anyone.

So, in order that Kokiyev, who works with the GRU, not have a chance to go too far, Sulim Yamadayev and his people also "have" half of Chechnya. One is backed by the FSB and the other by the GRU. Like curators and fatherly puppeteers. Forgive me, commanders. Both "firms," are the real combat forces in the area, having split it half and half. A policy of checks and balances? Or a game of cat and mouse at the cost of a new war? If you need one, you pull a string; if you do not, you give them a breather....

The FSB and GRU have never been at peace with each other. Neither generally nor in Chechnya in particular. A minor war has gone on here between these special services from time to time before. However, a schematic scenario of the current period goes like this: The FSB is specializing in covering the misdeeds by Kadyrov's men and is allowing a spawning of their detachments; the GRU is counteracting this and is getting ready for confrontation and new bloodshed. Not with its own hands, as we can see, but with those of specially selected Chechens.

The upshot is that whichever way you look at it, there will be a war all the same, whoever is allowed to win or lose. Do we want THAT? Will we be able to bear THAT?

"Tell me, with your real combat strength can you now positively influence the 'political process' in any way? In order that the election be the least bit honest?"

"No," Major Kokiyev replies. "If we try to secure a clean election, it will wind up in clashes. My only expectation is that we will have to fight. I am expecting bloodshed. They are prepared to do anything."

"Who are 'they'?"

"Kadyrov's men."

"Why?"

"Because they know they will not be made answerable. The people will question them. But what if Kadyrov's men are nevertheless allowed to win and the questioning is postponed? That would be the end of anyone who opposed them. Civil war."

Today's acknowledgements by Said-Magomed Kokiyev, who did not give a single interview throughout the years of the first and second Chechen wars because he was in the GRU, are fundamental. It is not even a symptom but an ulcer that has come to the surface. The Kremlin will no longer back only Kadyrov in the 5 October election. Otherwise Kokiyev would simply not have made the acknowledgements....

Whom to back then? In this round?

An organized civil war. A "contested democratic election" making a line for Liberia.

... We finally climb down a dark barracks ladder in Tribuna. It is pitch dark even though it is still early evening but there is a
blackout here all day round -- sunlight is counter-indicated to local residents. A Russian officer constantly hovers behind Major Kokiyev's back like a shadow. I stumble upon bats -- the symbol of military intelligence -- drawn large on the walls. There is a sea of camouflaged men in the yard of the Tribuna barracks. Bolts scrape and there are more bulletproof jackets than people. On the threshold is Sulim Yamadayev himself, the rival firm. "Why is he here?"

"We have a meeting," Kokiyev says, running around.

"What kidnapper of people am I?" Sulim says indignantly. The Russian shadow officer smirks in the background behind the backs of the both deputy commandants.... A puppeteer? "Why are you writing that I am kidnapping them?"

"You do, don't you?"

Kokiyev explains: "Not now. At the request of important people in Moscow I told him to abandon the old ways and he does not make any wrong moves now. That is the truth. He is behaving himself."

They both really are going to "consult." Two Chechen armies now able to "make the election." If they so wish. The men left in the yard are ready to grab each other by the throat.

It remains for me to add only a little: The 5 October election in Chechnya have the same relationship to the word "democracy" as the whole of today's Russia in the era of Putin's presidency. It is precisely this period that has engendered the second Chechen war and, as a consequence, a civil war in Chechnya on behalf of Kadyrov and, as a result of the civil war, the forthcoming no-win election with a bloody outcome.... The tragedy is that they will not fail to be held. Even though, we would remind you, the crux of the process remains as before: The election slated for 5 October is illegal. Because it was called by fraudulent means -- in accordance with the Constitution that was adopted on 23 March 2003 while another Constitution that had not been legally repealed still existed; something de facto that has never anywhere been mechanically turned into something de jure even if it is the question of replacing one state structure with another on the
territory, which, for this aim, has been occupied by an 86,000-strong military contingent comprising one-third of voters.

So even if the election takes place registering a 120-percent turnout and a 100-percent "We approve, Sir" for Kadyrov (Dzhabrailov, Saydulayev, or someone else), the event will remain a tripwire in history. If you pull the legal thread, the structure will fly into the air. Any unbiased court that gathers in the future will rule the 5 October election unrecognized. So everything can be dragged through war.... War is the best resource. But what is the point?